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☆ 3 of Wall Street's biggest banks share what's next for markets after the largest earnings surprise in years — and 25 top stocks to invest in for stable, long-term profit growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Large technology stocks have continued to be a key driver of earnings growth. Those calls are based on the firms' expectation that the economy will continue to grow despite uncomfortably high interest rates. Bullish firms concur that elevated interest rates are a serious concern for investors. "Should the outlook for earnings growth deteriorate, the recent stretch of quality outperformance will likely continue and also expand to include stocks with stable growth," Kostin wrote. Along with each is its ticker, market capitalization, sector, 2024 expected earnings growth rate, and 10-year EBITDA growth variability rate, according to Goldman Sachs.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, Stocks, they've, Mike Wilson, Morgan, 19.3x, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Wilson, Kostin, Russell Organizations: UBS, Business, UBS Beats, UBS Global Wealth Management, Companies, Federal Reserve

☆ Europe is beating inflation. Why can’t America declare victory?
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The Fed aims to keep inflation at 2% over the longer run. Meanwhile, among the 20 countries that use the euro, annual consumer price inflation has slowed steadily since the start of the year. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said earlier this month that she would favor a rate hike “should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”So why does the United States appear to have a bigger inflation problem than Europe? Some economists argue there isn’t actually much daylight between the US and European rates of inflation, pointing to a quirk in the US measures. The measure is designed to track inflation in the real estate market while accounting for the fact that most Americans own their homes.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Paul Donovan, Simon MacAdam, ”, MacAdam, ” Carsten Brzeski, Janet Yellen, Jim Watson, Brzeski, “, ” Davide Oneglia Organizations: London CNN, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, PCE, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics, ING, CNN, Monetary Fund, Washington, Reuters, Getty, —, ECB, Lombard Locations: United States, Europe, Centreville , Maryland, AFP, Russia, Ukraine

☆ UBS: The Fed will implement its first rate cut in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS: The Fed will implement its first rate cut in SeptemberBrian Rose, UBS Global Wealth Management senior U.S. economist, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the outlook for potential rate cuts, economic data, and more.

Persons: Brian Rose, Steve Liesman Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ No reason for the Fed to cut if the economy is holding up at these higher rates: UBS' Jason Draho
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNo reason for the Fed to cut if the economy is holding up at these higher rates: UBS' Jason DrahoJason Draho, UBS Global Wealth Management head of asset allocation Americas, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends ahead of the opening bell on Wednesday.

Persons: Jason Draho Jason Draho Organizations: Fed, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ Here’s what would happen to the US economy if there are no rate cuts this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

That’s why Fed Chair Powell conveyed on Tuesday the central bank won’t be cutting interest rates any time soon. How would the US economy handle more months of painstakingly high interest rates? Investors are banking on cutsWhen Fed officials initially penciled in three rate cuts at the end of last year, markets hit new highs. But the longer the Fed leaves interest rates higher means more pain could be inflicted on households and businesses, said Goldstein. But not everyone thinks cracks in the economy will widen if the Fed doesn’t cut rates this year.

Persons: Powell, ” Powell, paring, Itay Goldstein, Tesla, Goldstein, ”, Brian Rose, David Mericle, Goldman Sachs Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Tiff, Investors, Dow, Nasdaq, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, CNN, Fed, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: New York

☆ UBS: Expect Fed to cut rates by 75 basis points this year, starting in June
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS: Expect Fed to cut rates by 75 basis points this year, starting in JuneFahd Iqbal, Middle East CIO at UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses the outlook for the Chinese and U.S. economies.

Persons: Fahd Iqbal Organizations: UBS, Middle, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: U.S

☆ UBS discusses outlook for U.S. rates and stock market
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS discusses outlook for U.S. rates and stock marketAdrian Zuercher, head global asset allocation and co-head global investment management Asia-Pacific at UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

Persons: Adrian Zuercher Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: Asia, Pacific

☆ Small caps will get a tailwind from market broadening, says UBS' Jason Draho
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSmall caps will get a tailwind from market broadening, says UBS' Jason DrahoMarc Pinto, Janus Henderson Investors head of Americas equities, and Jason Draho, UBS Global Wealth Management head of asset allocation Americas, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.

Persons: Jason Draho Marc Pinto, Janus Henderson, Jason Draho Organizations: UBS, Janus Henderson Investors, UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ Stock futures are little changed after Nasdaq Composite retreats from record: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on March 4, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures were little changed Monday night after the Nasdaq Composite retreated from its record high. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 59 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures inched down 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures fell 0.2%. During Monday's main trading session, the S&P 500 dropped 0.12%, and the tech-forward Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.41%.

Persons: Dow, Jason Draho, CNBC's, They're, Draho, there's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, GitLab, Nvidia, Micro Computer, Apple, European Commission, UBS Global Wealth Management, Target, Nordstrom, P Global US Services, Services Locations: New York City . U.S

☆ 4 reasons why Wall Street fears that Nvidia's hard-earned gains could go up in smoke
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

In the last 15 months, Wall Street analysts have hailed generative AI as the most impactful innovation in decades and compared its theoretical impact to that of the internet. While the full impact of AI isn't clear yet, companies are under immense pressure to convince investors that they're not falling behind. "We can't envision any of these large cloud companies or consumer companies pulling back on AI spending anytime soon," Colello said. UBS"This is not always a harbinger of slowing revenue growth and a concentrated H200/B100 launch could be adding to near-term opex," Arcuri wrote in a recent note. AdvertisementDespite what Nvidia's recent performance suggests, Wall Street is notoriously tough to please.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, Steve Sosnick, Wedbush's Dan Ives, who's, Marcelli, they're, Sosnick, Brian Colello, Colello, They're, we're, Vivek Arya, Arya, Michael Landsberg, Landsberg, Jason Draho, Draho, Timothy Arcuri, Arcuri Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Business, Nvidia, Interactive, Bulls, Bank of America, Wedbush Securities, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Morningstar, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management

☆ Goldilocks scenario is coming through thanks to AI and strong U.S. economy, says Mark Haefele
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldilocks scenario is coming through thanks to AI and strong U.S. economy, says Mark HaefeleMark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses earnings, the S&P 500, and the stock market rally.

Persons: Mark Haefele Mark Haefele Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ What's next for the S&P 500 after hitting a record? Nvidia is the key
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Where markets go next may well depend on how Nvidia does after going forward. "The answer here will depend on NVDA," Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report wrote in a Thursday note. "The stock is at an all-time high ... and if it can hold (or extend) this rally ... it'll imply that tech can help lead this market higher." Nvidia and other artificial intelligence darlings, including Meta Platforms, powered the broader market last year, while other stocks underperformed. I'd rather take it elsewhere in something that hasn't had as much of a run as Nvidia has."

Persons: Tom Essaye, Essaye, Patrick McDonough, Solita Marcelli, Charles Ashley, hasn't, Said PGIM's McDonough Organizations: Nvidia, Revenue, Nasdaq, VanEck Semiconductor, Federal Reserve, Meta, UBS Global Wealth Management, Catalyst Funds

☆ Nvidia's blowout earnings could fuel interest in this 'Magnificent Seven' ETF
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Meanwhile, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) rose more than 4% and had already seen 280,000 shares traded as of Thursday afternoon, putting in on track to potentially set a new fund record for daily volume. The Roundhill fund has a simple structure that is resonating with some investors eager to buy even more of the Magnificent Seven. MAGS YTD mountain Roundhill's Magnificent Seven ETF tracks major tech stocks. In addition to capitalizing on investor demand for ways to play the megacap tech stocks, the Roundhill ETF is also a case study in fund marketing. So Roundhill pivoted out of "Big Tech" and into the trendier "Magnificent Seven."

Persons: BIGT, Tesla, MAGS, David Mazza, Mazza, Andrew Stewart Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Nasdaq, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Big Tech, Roundhill Investments, Exchange Capital Management Locations: Americas

☆ Fed rate hikes are creeping back into the conversation
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. AdvertisementExperts maintain that any hikes this year are unlikely, but say it's notable how they have creeped back into the policy conversation once again. "You can't say zero probability for something to break in the event of another rate hike," Jason Draho, head of asset allocation in the Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, told Business Insider. "That last mile [of inflation] will be harder to obtain," Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise Financial's chief market strategist, told Business Insider. "The Fed's erring on the side of hawkishness," Hunter told Business Insider.

Persons: —, Larry Summers, Summers, Jason Draho, you'd, Goldman Sachs, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, Paul Mielczarski, Mielczarski, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, PPI, Fed, Former, Bloomberg, Traders, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics Locations: Americas, OER, Brandywine, hawkishness

☆ Japan and the UK are in recessions. Is the US next?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —And just like that, two of the world’s largest economies are in technical recessions. On Thursday, Japan and the UK both reported their second consecutive negative quarters of gross domestic product, fitting the widely agreed-upon definition of a recession. In 2022, the nation’s population declined by 800,000, marking the 14th consecutive year of contraction. In the UK, however, population and wage growth weren’t sufficient to stave off a drop in consumer spending, one of the main drivers of that economy. In the past two quarters, the nation’s economy experienced much higher than expected GDP growth, due in large part to robust consumer spending.

Persons: Paul Donovan, ” Donovan, Kazuhiro Nogi, ”, didn’t, Jerome Powell, “, it’s, there’s, Powell, Philipp Carlsson, doesn’t, “ it’s, Carlsson Organizations: New, New York CNN, UBS Global Wealth Management, Getty, National Bureau of Economic Research, don’t, US Federal Reserve, Boston Consulting Locations: New York, Japan, Germany, AFP, Ukraine

☆ UBS: China should probably take a more 'proactive approach' to restoring investor confidence
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS: China should probably take a more 'proactive approach' to restoring investor confidenceHartmut Issel of UBS Global Wealth Management discusses the country's bumpy economic recovery and what the Chinese leadership must do to restore investor confidence.

Persons: Hartmut Issel Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: China

☆ 'There's very little margin for error': 7 strategists explain why the Goldilocks narrative is in trouble — but these 8 investments are still worth making now
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Investors are pricing in a best-case outcome where earnings rise and inflation returns to normal in a continued economic expansion. “It’s a tough needle to thread,” said Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “And that pretty much pulls forward almost all the returns, in our minds, for 2024.”AdvertisementCrit Thomas, a global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, has the same concern. “And so at 21x earnings, there’s very little margin for error here.”AdvertisementFourth-quarter earnings mostly met measured expectations , as did forward guidance. Clark Bellin, the chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth, said he’s less worried about valuations broadly and is more interested in seeing which sectors look cheap.

Persons: —, ”, Solita Marcelli, “, Sameer Samana, Steve Sosnick, It’s, Steven Wieting, “ We’ve, Crit Thomas, “ I’m, ” Thomas, We’re, Chris Galipeau, ” Galipeau, ” Sosnick, we’ve, Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab, ” Sonders, there’s, Clark Bellin, he’s, ” Bellin, you’re, Stocks, Samana, won’t, Thomas, Wieting, Bellin, “ They’ve, they’re Organizations: Service, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Interactive, Citi Global Wealth’s, Touchstone Investments, Franklin Templeton Institute, Citi Global Wealth, Bellwether Wealth Locations: Wells Fargo, Samana, ” Samana, Galipeau

NEW YORK (AP) — As some of the world’s biggest economies stumble into recession, the United States keeps chugging along. Yet in the United States, the economy motored ahead in last year’s fourth quarter for a sixth straight quarter of growth. But, for now, the outlook continues to appear better for the United States than many other big economies. Even China, whose economy is growing faster than the United States’, is under heavy pressure. Some pillars of support for consumer spending may be weakening.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, Biden, ”, Diane Swonk, They've, Catherine Mann, Morgan Stanley, Chris Kempczinski, he’s, ” ___ Rugaber Organizations: U.S, UBS Global Wealth Management, International Monetary Fund, KPMG, “, Federal, British, Bank of England, Bank of, Japan, Federal Reserve Locations: United States, Japan, United Kingdom, U.S, Government, Americas, Washington, Europe, Ukraine, China

☆ S&P 500 could rise to 5,300 after hitting latest milestone, says UBS wealth head
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

While the S & P 500 has more doubled since hitting its pandemic low in March 2020, UBS thinks stock values are "well supported" and that the benchmark could exceed its original forecast for 2024. UBS global wealth management chief Mark Haefele said things were lining up for the S & P 500 to make a run toward 5,300 this year, about 6% upside from current levels. Haefele's base case for 2024 was a gain to around 5,000, but the S & P 500 has already reached that point in a hurry, up 5% year-to-date. "In this event, we believe the S & P 500 has the potential to rise to around 5,300 this year." The benchmark is on pace for five-straight positive weeks as tech shares rally and companies report higher fourth-quarter earnings than expected.

Persons: Mark Haefele, Haefele Organizations: UBS, Labor Department Locations: Thursday's

☆ Gauging the risk of contagion from NYCB and commercial real estate woes
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The latest concern threatening regional banks started on Jan. 31, when New York Community Bancorp. reported unexpected fourth quarter loss and a large loan loss reserve against futures losses, due in part to the bank's commercial real estate (CRE) exposure. One worry is that the NYCB credit downgrade could spur ratings agencies to take a closer look at other banks, or cause clients to again pull deposits out of regional banks. Determining exactly how unique NYCB's exposure to commercial real estate is will be a key focus for investors and analysts in coming weeks. A note on Wednesday from Wolfe Research analysts focused on banks and commercial real estate showed that regional banks have in general reduced their commercial real estate exposure over the past 15 years.

Persons: NYCB, Ian Lyngen, hasn't, Lyngen, D.A, Davidson, Peter Winter, Winter, Macrae Sykes, Banks, They're, Sykes, Wells Fargo, Jerome Powell, Bond, Tom Fitzpatrick, RJ O'Brien, Fitzpatrick, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Investors, New York Community Bancorp, Moody's, Street, Silicon Valley Bank, BMO, Treasury, Wolfe Research, UBS, Gabelli, CNBC Locations: Silicon, Wells

☆ The US economy is doing well. President Biden wants to know why so many Americans are still feeling bad
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Mj Lee | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

That has prompted President Joe Biden to repeatedly ask his advisers: Why then are so many Americans still not feeling great about the economy? While inflation has eased in recent months, prices on most goods are still higher than they were in the spring of 2021. Still, Biden’s economic advisers are increasingly telling the president in private that they feel optimistic about the direction things are headed. Historic-high prices that plagued the first few years of the Biden administration continue to moderate, all while economic growth is outpacing expectations. If those trend lines continue, they have cautiously told Biden, consumer sentiment, too, should begin to course-correct.

Persons: Joe Biden, Inflation, Biden, ‘ Sir, we’ll, “, ”, SSRS, Donald Trump, –, ” Biden, – we’re, – Sen, Bob Casey of, greedflation Organizations: Washington CNN, CNN, White, University of Michigan, Conference Board, New York Times, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: Columbia , South Carolina, America, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Las Vegas, American

☆ UBS says the Indian rupee is one of its currency 'top picks' for this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS says the Indian rupee is one of its currency 'top picks' for this yearTan Teck Leng of UBS Global Wealth Management says it's "one of our favorite currencies to play the yield carry trades this year."

Persons: Tan Teck Leng Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ Small-cap stocks are the cheapest they've been since 2000 and are an under-the-radar way to profit from AI, a strategy chief predicts. Here are 5 ways to play their upcoming rally.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

A soft landing would greatly boost small caps since they're economically sensitive, meaning they tend to thrive in expansions and fall during contractions. Marcelli also made note of smaller companies' weaker balance sheets, though those are arguably accounted for in valuations. With that said, those positive forces appear to be intact, so small caps could finally break out. Instead of selling AI chips or products, smaller companies can enhance their productivity by using the technology, the strategy chief said. 5 sectors where small caps can thriveWithin small caps, Temple said he's less focused on what sector a company falls into and more concerned with whether that firm is financially healthy.

Persons: haven't, Russell, Marcelli, Ronald Temple, Temple, couldn't, there's, Jack Janasiewicz, Janasiewicz, he's, you've, I'd, they've Organizations: Business, Yahoo Finance, UBS Global Wealth Management, Lazard Asset Management, Temple, Reserve, Savings, Nvidia, Devices, Microsoft

☆ A 'Goldilocks scenario' will hinge a lot on what the Fed says, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA 'Goldilocks scenario' will hinge a lot on what the Fed says, strategist saysKiran Ganesh, multi asset strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management, says "if you get a combination of strong growth, falling inflation and rapid interest rate cuts from the Fed, then that's what is going to take to move the market higher from here."

Persons: Kiran Ganesh Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, Fed

The United States has seen a steady decline in the rate of inflation, and yet many American voters are still upset over the cost of daily life. To understand this perception gap, Paul Donovan, the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, argues, we should consider the cost of a Snickers Bar. In this audio essay, he explains that frequent smaller purchases — like candy bars — shape our experience of the economy. (A full transcript of this audio essay will be available midday on the Times website.)

Persons: Paul Donovan Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, Times Locations: States

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